Econbrowser: El meu comentari
Econbrowser: Limitations of the Hirsch report on peak oil
I think that what Hirsh meant by "demand" is simply a projection of "normal" GNP growth rates, with current oil intensities.
That is, if the global economic system is to perform as expected, then this would be the demand. What Hamilton is saying, I guess, is ... "don't worry, the world is not going to grow as expected". The system will slow down (with all that means in terms of social and human costs) but we, the rich w'll get our oil, even if a bit more expensive.
That's the economists "solution". For the rest of us, let's get on doing something practical, like taking the economists out of our future.
I think that what Hirsh meant by "demand" is simply a projection of "normal" GNP growth rates, with current oil intensities.
That is, if the global economic system is to perform as expected, then this would be the demand. What Hamilton is saying, I guess, is ... "don't worry, the world is not going to grow as expected". The system will slow down (with all that means in terms of social and human costs) but we, the rich w'll get our oil, even if a bit more expensive.
That's the economists "solution". For the rest of us, let's get on doing something practical, like taking the economists out of our future.
posted by Marcel at 5:12 PM
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