Powerswitch Newsletter - October 2005
Yahoo! Groups : energyresources Messages : Message 83633 of 83838
*POWERSWITCH.ORG.UK*
NEWSLETTER OCTOBER 2005
www.PowerSwitch.Org.Uk
It has been nearly 6 weeks since our last newsletter and a lot has
happened. There was the End of Oil conference on 11th October which, if
you missed it, is now available to listen to via the PowerSwitch site,
and we have launched both a survey and a map as part of the awareness
raising process. We've also been hard at work with political lobbying,
sending an email about Peak Oil to every MP we could, and in conjunction
with John Hemming MP, a Peak Oil Summit is being organised in the House
of Commons on November 23rd.
We've also had a few extra volunteers join the team, filling the roles
of Regional Campaign Co-Ordinator, March Organiser and a new DVD
distributor (many thanks to Mike for his work over the last year with
this). We're getting some very professional leaflets and posters being
designed which will be available for download for your own printing
requirements. We are still in need of more regional contacts and other
willing volunteers who'll keep on spreading the word. If you're
interested, let us know. You may have volunteered in the past and are
itching for something to do. If this is the case, please let me know.
On a general note, I'd like to say that I feel as if real progress is
being made. We may only be playing a small part in that, but there is
no doubt that as each day goes by, more people are waking up.
*POWERSWITCH NEWS*
*OCTOBER 11th - END OF OIL - CONFERENCE AUDIO & PRESENTATIONS*
The reports, audio files and the powerpoint presentations from the
successful October 11th 'End of Oil' conference are now available.
http://endofoil.tz4.com/
*PEAK SPEAK AUDIO FILES NOW AVAILABLE*
The audio files from our July conference are finally available.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1242&Itemid=72
*THE POWERSWITCH MAP*
Find other PeakNiks in your area with the PowerSwitch Map. Please add
yourself! We've put our email addresses on so people in our area can
contact us to meet up and talk about Peak Oil. Community solutions!
http://www.frappr.com/powerswitch
And there is a U.S version at
http://www.frappr.com/peakoilers
*THE POWERSWITCH FORUMS
*There is nowhere better on the net for UK talk about Peak Oil and
everything related than the PowerSwitch forums.
http://www.frappr.com/powerswitch
*WILL MY iPOD WORK AFTER PEAK OIL?*
A popular little design we did.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/images/stories/adverts/willmyipodwork.jpg
*THE FIRST YEAR OF POWERSWITCH*
7th October 2005 was the first anniversary of PowerSwitch and I must say
I never thought I'd be so interested in oil. I was just like almost
everyone else who thought that one day oil would run out, many years in
the future, not in my lifetime; when the thing to really be concerned
about is when global oil production will go into decline, and that is
going to happen a lot sooner than 'the end of oil'.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1&limit=21&limitstart=42
*UK OIL & ENERGY SURVEY LAUNCHED BY POWERSWITCH*
PowerSwitch has launched a survey about the UK's Oil & Energy
situation. One of the main aims of this survey is to get people
thinking about energy usage - especially people who don't usually think
about it. So if you want to test yourself or maybe get your friends and
family thinking about our energy usage, and what peak oil is all about,
please encourage them to take this survey.
http://tinyurl.com/dfk8m
*WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?*
'Where do we go from here?' is a poster designed by PowerSwitch aimed at
getting people to ask that very question. As a pdf it is ideal for
printing or sending to people by email.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1241&Itemid=39
*COLIN CAMPBELL EXPLAINS PEAK OIL*
The 45 minute lesson in Peak Oil you have to take.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1092&Itemid=68
*MAJOR INTERNATIONAL PEAK OIL CONFERENCE IN RIMINI THIS WEEKEND*
Hosted by Michail Gorbachev. It will be interesting to see what comes
out of this as the Rimini protocol is being discussed.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1182&Itemid=2
*OIL DEPLETION - FACING THE CHALLENGES - NOVEMBER 2ND*
The Energy Institute is hosting an oil conference, and of most interest
will be the DTI giving the Government view on Peak Oil.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1286&Itemid=2
*HEADLINE NEWS*
**
A selection of some of the most important Peak Oil news from the last month.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal
*RUSSIA TO PEAK IN 2010
*Russian oil output could peak at more than 510 million tons annually in
2010, or 10.2 million barrels per day, Russian Industry and Energy
Minister Victor Khristenko said on Monday, Oct. 24.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1304&Itemid=2
*OFFICIAL DOUBTS ON SAUDI VOW FOR MORE OIL*
Doubts about Saudi Arabia's assurances of how much it can expand
capacity - and for how long - have been raised in a secret intelligence
report and in a separate analysis by a leading U.S government oil
adviser, according to a federal government official and the oil expert.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1311&Itemid=2
*MEGAPROJECTS 2005 UPDATE*
The latest Megaprojects Update has been made available via SydeyPeakOil
as a PDF. This is an update of last year's report by Chris Skrewbowski
which made a very strong claim for a peak in 2007/2008. The article
concludes: "In 2004, effectively all the world's spare capacity was
used up in meeting unexpectedly rapid demand growth. It is not at all
clear if the world's oil companies can provide an incremental 3mnplus
b/d from all the small, untabulated projects and infill drilling going
forward year after year. The world has now reached the point where the
volumes lost to depletion are much larger than the levels of likely new
demand. This means total increments required (new demand plus depletion)
are running at around 7%/y, while the largest supply increments in 2006
and 2007 are contributing 3.6% and 3.5%. It would seem most unlikely
that small projects and infill drilling could account for the remaining
required 3.5%. The inescapable conclusion is that oil prices will have
to remain high enough to destroy demand, bringing supply and demand back
into balance."
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1&limit=21&limitstart=21
*OIL AND SAUDI ARABIA*
Everything that you need to know about the future of Saudi Arabian oil
production can be found in a staff report to the subcommittee on
international economic policy of the committee on foreign relations of
the United States Senate (1979). Regardless of what you may or may not
have heard on that increasingly relevant subject, between 1979 and now
hardly anything has changed, although the question must still be asked
why this and similar documents were - and still are - overlooked by many
energy professionals.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1300&Itemid=2
*WAITING FOR THE LIGHTS TO GO OUT*
In a no-holds barred article, The Sunday Times looks at Peak Oil (and
other problems) and how it could lead us to the new dark ages. Who says
the media aren't prepared to speak about this?
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1275&Itemid=2
*TRANSITION 1
*"In the 'Peak Oil' aftermath, we are about to enter what I call
'Transition One' [T1] --- a rather bizarre phase akin to a vague
'no-man's-land' between still adequate oil supplies and the clear
realization that demand has definitely left supply behind," writes Ali
Samsan Bakhtiari. "I see the tragic '2004 Tsunami' and the
heart-breaking '2005 Katrina and Rita' as the precursors signs to 'T1'.
This fresh phase might come to burst on the global stage during the
coming winter 2005-2006 --- maybe taking large swaths of the public by
surprise. Fortunately, the hidden advantage of 'T1' is that worldwide
oil supplies will remain almost constant during this initial phase,
allowing those with foresight, intelligence and agility to begin
preparing for the next, more-turbulent phases: 'T2', 'T3', .."
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1310&Itemid=2
*THE ENERGY CRISIS THAT LED TO THE DARK AGES*
The timber crisis of the late Bronze Age was obviously not the
extinction of all trees in the world. It didn't need to be, just as we
don't need to run out of oil to face a similar fuel crisis. There was
still lumber to be felled; but as Bronze Age kingdoms deforested their
surrounding ecosystem, the nearest forest became farther and father
away. Loggers had to travel farther to reach the forest, and once the
trees were felled, they needed to be transported longer and longer
distances back home. The energy invested was constantly increasing, but
the energy returned remained the same. The ERoEI plummeted, and Bronze
Age civilization collapsed into a dark age for several centuries.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1307&Itemid=2
*FUEL CRISIS MIGHT SHUT INDUSTRY, ADMITS MINISTER*
The Government has admitted that companies across Britain might be
forced to close this winter because of fuel shortages.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1294&Itemid=2
*IEA SAYS PEAK IN 2010 FOR NON-OPEC
*The International Energy Agency told Le Monde that crude oil production
from non-Opec countries will start to decline after 2010
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1211&Itemid=2
*IEA DIRECTLY ADDRESSES 'PEAK OIL'*
The International Energy Agency (IEA) report, "Resources to Reserves:
Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future," has broken
step with other oil bodies by directly addressing the concerns of "peak
oil" theorists.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1249&Itemid=2
*HAVE THE MAJOR OIL COMPANIES PEAKED?*
In the first half of 2005 the top five, the top ten and the top 22
publicly quoted oil companies all produced less crude and NGLs [Natural
Gas Liquids] than they did in 2004, according to a report by Petroleum
Review.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1288&Itemid=2
*'USA TODAY' COVERS PEAK OIL*
Today's gasoline prices are high because Hurricanes Katrina and Rita
disrupted oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. But emergency supplies
from strategic oil reserves in the United States and abroad can largely
compensate for that temporary shortfall. If the "peak oil" advocates are
correct, however, today's transient shortages and high prices will soon
become a permanent way of life.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1280&Itemid=2
*WHY RISING OIL PRICES MIGHT NOT FUEL INFLATION*
Inflation is likely to become a persistent problem in the light of an
oil price shock only if central banks do not enjoy their independence
and if labour is strong enough to pass the costs of adjustment on to
other members of society
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1268&Itemid=2
*UK WINTER ENERGY OUTLOOK*
Two interesting reports have been published recently, Energy Trends from
the DTI updated with 2005 Quarter 2 data and Winter Outlook Report
2005/06 from Ofgem. These two reports contain a wealth of data on the UK
energy market past, present and looking forward to the winter. However I
am less impressed with the analysis and conclusions drawn from the data.
In part one of this article I discuss the Winter Outlook Report.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1266&Itemid=2
*SADA AL HUSSEINI SAYS 2015 WILL BE PEAK YEAR*
"Under the current circumstances and outlook, oil is likely to peak at a
95 mmbd plateau by 2015 and can then be sustained well beyond 2020 at
increasing real oil prices," claims Sadad al Husseini, recently retired
head of exploration and production for Saudi Aramco.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1&limit=21&limitstart=42
*UK OIL PRODUCTION DOWN*
Total indigenous UK production of crude oil and NGLs in the second
quarter of 2005 decreased by 10.1% to 21.9m tonnes, compared with 2004.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1256&Itemid=2
*TIME MAGAZINE COVERS PEAK OIL*
"Between 1950 and 2005, the world's use of oil grew more than eightfold,
bringing global demand to 85 million bbl. of oil per day. Despite that
incredible growth, the world's oil appetite is just getting a head of
steam, as countries like China and India finally move toward lifestyles
comparable to those of Europe and the U.S. Most oil-forecasting models
show demand rising to between 120 million and 130 million bbl. per day
by 2025 or 2030. The only way this demand can be met is for most of the
additional supply to come from the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia
providing the bulk. Don't bet on it," writes Matt Simmons.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1213&Itemid=2
*LIFE BEYOND OIL*
The New Statesman has a special supplement entitled 'Life Beyond Oil'.
It features articles by Andrew Simms and Michael Meacher, both of whom
will be speaking at the End of Oil conference in October. You can read
the supplement as a PDF online for free.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1238&Itemid=2
*SHELL : OIL PRODUCTION COSTS MAY RISE 500%
*Shell Nederland president Rein Willems said that oil production costs
may rise five-fold in the near future. He said that for Shell, the
higher costs will mainly be the result of more difficult
resource-gathering and refining methods as the company moves to retrieve
oil from sources other than the conventional oil wells.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1221&Itemid=2
*WHY UNCONVENTIONAL OIL SOURCES WILL BE TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE.*
The Oil Drum has posted an excellent piece of analysis looks at what
exactly is needed from unconventional oil sources to prevent the world
peaking, and why it is unlikely to happen. Highly recommended reading,
especially as these unconventional oils are often touted as the reason
why we don't need to worry about the peak.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1216&Itemid=2
*POWERSWITCH.ORG.UK*
NEWSLETTER OCTOBER 2005
www.PowerSwitch.Org.Uk
It has been nearly 6 weeks since our last newsletter and a lot has
happened. There was the End of Oil conference on 11th October which, if
you missed it, is now available to listen to via the PowerSwitch site,
and we have launched both a survey and a map as part of the awareness
raising process. We've also been hard at work with political lobbying,
sending an email about Peak Oil to every MP we could, and in conjunction
with John Hemming MP, a Peak Oil Summit is being organised in the House
of Commons on November 23rd.
We've also had a few extra volunteers join the team, filling the roles
of Regional Campaign Co-Ordinator, March Organiser and a new DVD
distributor (many thanks to Mike for his work over the last year with
this). We're getting some very professional leaflets and posters being
designed which will be available for download for your own printing
requirements. We are still in need of more regional contacts and other
willing volunteers who'll keep on spreading the word. If you're
interested, let us know. You may have volunteered in the past and are
itching for something to do. If this is the case, please let me know.
On a general note, I'd like to say that I feel as if real progress is
being made. We may only be playing a small part in that, but there is
no doubt that as each day goes by, more people are waking up.
*POWERSWITCH NEWS*
*OCTOBER 11th - END OF OIL - CONFERENCE AUDIO & PRESENTATIONS*
The reports, audio files and the powerpoint presentations from the
successful October 11th 'End of Oil' conference are now available.
http://endofoil.tz4.com/
*PEAK SPEAK AUDIO FILES NOW AVAILABLE*
The audio files from our July conference are finally available.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1242&Itemid=72
*THE POWERSWITCH MAP*
Find other PeakNiks in your area with the PowerSwitch Map. Please add
yourself! We've put our email addresses on so people in our area can
contact us to meet up and talk about Peak Oil. Community solutions!
http://www.frappr.com/powerswitch
And there is a U.S version at
http://www.frappr.com/peakoilers
*THE POWERSWITCH FORUMS
*There is nowhere better on the net for UK talk about Peak Oil and
everything related than the PowerSwitch forums.
http://www.frappr.com/powerswitch
*WILL MY iPOD WORK AFTER PEAK OIL?*
A popular little design we did.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/images/stories/adverts/willmyipodwork.jpg
*THE FIRST YEAR OF POWERSWITCH*
7th October 2005 was the first anniversary of PowerSwitch and I must say
I never thought I'd be so interested in oil. I was just like almost
everyone else who thought that one day oil would run out, many years in
the future, not in my lifetime; when the thing to really be concerned
about is when global oil production will go into decline, and that is
going to happen a lot sooner than 'the end of oil'.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1&limit=21&limitstart=42
*UK OIL & ENERGY SURVEY LAUNCHED BY POWERSWITCH*
PowerSwitch has launched a survey about the UK's Oil & Energy
situation. One of the main aims of this survey is to get people
thinking about energy usage - especially people who don't usually think
about it. So if you want to test yourself or maybe get your friends and
family thinking about our energy usage, and what peak oil is all about,
please encourage them to take this survey.
http://tinyurl.com/dfk8m
*WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?*
'Where do we go from here?' is a poster designed by PowerSwitch aimed at
getting people to ask that very question. As a pdf it is ideal for
printing or sending to people by email.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1241&Itemid=39
*COLIN CAMPBELL EXPLAINS PEAK OIL*
The 45 minute lesson in Peak Oil you have to take.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1092&Itemid=68
*MAJOR INTERNATIONAL PEAK OIL CONFERENCE IN RIMINI THIS WEEKEND*
Hosted by Michail Gorbachev. It will be interesting to see what comes
out of this as the Rimini protocol is being discussed.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1182&Itemid=2
*OIL DEPLETION - FACING THE CHALLENGES - NOVEMBER 2ND*
The Energy Institute is hosting an oil conference, and of most interest
will be the DTI giving the Government view on Peak Oil.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1286&Itemid=2
*HEADLINE NEWS*
**
A selection of some of the most important Peak Oil news from the last month.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal
*RUSSIA TO PEAK IN 2010
*Russian oil output could peak at more than 510 million tons annually in
2010, or 10.2 million barrels per day, Russian Industry and Energy
Minister Victor Khristenko said on Monday, Oct. 24.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1304&Itemid=2
*OFFICIAL DOUBTS ON SAUDI VOW FOR MORE OIL*
Doubts about Saudi Arabia's assurances of how much it can expand
capacity - and for how long - have been raised in a secret intelligence
report and in a separate analysis by a leading U.S government oil
adviser, according to a federal government official and the oil expert.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1311&Itemid=2
*MEGAPROJECTS 2005 UPDATE*
The latest Megaprojects Update has been made available via SydeyPeakOil
as a PDF. This is an update of last year's report by Chris Skrewbowski
which made a very strong claim for a peak in 2007/2008. The article
concludes: "In 2004, effectively all the world's spare capacity was
used up in meeting unexpectedly rapid demand growth. It is not at all
clear if the world's oil companies can provide an incremental 3mnplus
b/d from all the small, untabulated projects and infill drilling going
forward year after year. The world has now reached the point where the
volumes lost to depletion are much larger than the levels of likely new
demand. This means total increments required (new demand plus depletion)
are running at around 7%/y, while the largest supply increments in 2006
and 2007 are contributing 3.6% and 3.5%. It would seem most unlikely
that small projects and infill drilling could account for the remaining
required 3.5%. The inescapable conclusion is that oil prices will have
to remain high enough to destroy demand, bringing supply and demand back
into balance."
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1&limit=21&limitstart=21
*OIL AND SAUDI ARABIA*
Everything that you need to know about the future of Saudi Arabian oil
production can be found in a staff report to the subcommittee on
international economic policy of the committee on foreign relations of
the United States Senate (1979). Regardless of what you may or may not
have heard on that increasingly relevant subject, between 1979 and now
hardly anything has changed, although the question must still be asked
why this and similar documents were - and still are - overlooked by many
energy professionals.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1300&Itemid=2
*WAITING FOR THE LIGHTS TO GO OUT*
In a no-holds barred article, The Sunday Times looks at Peak Oil (and
other problems) and how it could lead us to the new dark ages. Who says
the media aren't prepared to speak about this?
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1275&Itemid=2
*TRANSITION 1
*"In the 'Peak Oil' aftermath, we are about to enter what I call
'Transition One' [T1] --- a rather bizarre phase akin to a vague
'no-man's-land' between still adequate oil supplies and the clear
realization that demand has definitely left supply behind," writes Ali
Samsan Bakhtiari. "I see the tragic '2004 Tsunami' and the
heart-breaking '2005 Katrina and Rita' as the precursors signs to 'T1'.
This fresh phase might come to burst on the global stage during the
coming winter 2005-2006 --- maybe taking large swaths of the public by
surprise. Fortunately, the hidden advantage of 'T1' is that worldwide
oil supplies will remain almost constant during this initial phase,
allowing those with foresight, intelligence and agility to begin
preparing for the next, more-turbulent phases: 'T2', 'T3', .."
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1310&Itemid=2
*THE ENERGY CRISIS THAT LED TO THE DARK AGES*
The timber crisis of the late Bronze Age was obviously not the
extinction of all trees in the world. It didn't need to be, just as we
don't need to run out of oil to face a similar fuel crisis. There was
still lumber to be felled; but as Bronze Age kingdoms deforested their
surrounding ecosystem, the nearest forest became farther and father
away. Loggers had to travel farther to reach the forest, and once the
trees were felled, they needed to be transported longer and longer
distances back home. The energy invested was constantly increasing, but
the energy returned remained the same. The ERoEI plummeted, and Bronze
Age civilization collapsed into a dark age for several centuries.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1307&Itemid=2
*FUEL CRISIS MIGHT SHUT INDUSTRY, ADMITS MINISTER*
The Government has admitted that companies across Britain might be
forced to close this winter because of fuel shortages.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1294&Itemid=2
*IEA SAYS PEAK IN 2010 FOR NON-OPEC
*The International Energy Agency told Le Monde that crude oil production
from non-Opec countries will start to decline after 2010
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1211&Itemid=2
*IEA DIRECTLY ADDRESSES 'PEAK OIL'*
The International Energy Agency (IEA) report, "Resources to Reserves:
Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future," has broken
step with other oil bodies by directly addressing the concerns of "peak
oil" theorists.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1249&Itemid=2
*HAVE THE MAJOR OIL COMPANIES PEAKED?*
In the first half of 2005 the top five, the top ten and the top 22
publicly quoted oil companies all produced less crude and NGLs [Natural
Gas Liquids] than they did in 2004, according to a report by Petroleum
Review.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1288&Itemid=2
*'USA TODAY' COVERS PEAK OIL*
Today's gasoline prices are high because Hurricanes Katrina and Rita
disrupted oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. But emergency supplies
from strategic oil reserves in the United States and abroad can largely
compensate for that temporary shortfall. If the "peak oil" advocates are
correct, however, today's transient shortages and high prices will soon
become a permanent way of life.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1280&Itemid=2
*WHY RISING OIL PRICES MIGHT NOT FUEL INFLATION*
Inflation is likely to become a persistent problem in the light of an
oil price shock only if central banks do not enjoy their independence
and if labour is strong enough to pass the costs of adjustment on to
other members of society
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1268&Itemid=2
*UK WINTER ENERGY OUTLOOK*
Two interesting reports have been published recently, Energy Trends from
the DTI updated with 2005 Quarter 2 data and Winter Outlook Report
2005/06 from Ofgem. These two reports contain a wealth of data on the UK
energy market past, present and looking forward to the winter. However I
am less impressed with the analysis and conclusions drawn from the data.
In part one of this article I discuss the Winter Outlook Report.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1266&Itemid=2
*SADA AL HUSSEINI SAYS 2015 WILL BE PEAK YEAR*
"Under the current circumstances and outlook, oil is likely to peak at a
95 mmbd plateau by 2015 and can then be sustained well beyond 2020 at
increasing real oil prices," claims Sadad al Husseini, recently retired
head of exploration and production for Saudi Aramco.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=1&limit=21&limitstart=42
*UK OIL PRODUCTION DOWN*
Total indigenous UK production of crude oil and NGLs in the second
quarter of 2005 decreased by 10.1% to 21.9m tonnes, compared with 2004.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1256&Itemid=2
*TIME MAGAZINE COVERS PEAK OIL*
"Between 1950 and 2005, the world's use of oil grew more than eightfold,
bringing global demand to 85 million bbl. of oil per day. Despite that
incredible growth, the world's oil appetite is just getting a head of
steam, as countries like China and India finally move toward lifestyles
comparable to those of Europe and the U.S. Most oil-forecasting models
show demand rising to between 120 million and 130 million bbl. per day
by 2025 or 2030. The only way this demand can be met is for most of the
additional supply to come from the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia
providing the bulk. Don't bet on it," writes Matt Simmons.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1213&Itemid=2
*LIFE BEYOND OIL*
The New Statesman has a special supplement entitled 'Life Beyond Oil'.
It features articles by Andrew Simms and Michael Meacher, both of whom
will be speaking at the End of Oil conference in October. You can read
the supplement as a PDF online for free.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1238&Itemid=2
*SHELL : OIL PRODUCTION COSTS MAY RISE 500%
*Shell Nederland president Rein Willems said that oil production costs
may rise five-fold in the near future. He said that for Shell, the
higher costs will mainly be the result of more difficult
resource-gathering and refining methods as the company moves to retrieve
oil from sources other than the conventional oil wells.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1221&Itemid=2
*WHY UNCONVENTIONAL OIL SOURCES WILL BE TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE.*
The Oil Drum has posted an excellent piece of analysis looks at what
exactly is needed from unconventional oil sources to prevent the world
peaking, and why it is unlikely to happen. Highly recommended reading,
especially as these unconventional oils are often touted as the reason
why we don't need to worry about the peak.
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1216&Itemid=2
posted by Marcel at 5:23 AM
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