Oil, the times, and Pascal's wager
EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil Headines - 13 September, 2005 | Energy and Peak Oil News
Stephen Leeb, The Complete Investor
...In some respects, what we are facing today regarding the oil situation resembles Pascal’s Wager.
Blaise Pascal was a theologian who wrote a series of notes called Pensees as part of an unfinished treatise on Christian apologetics. In these notes, he suggests that it is a better bet to believe in God than to disbelieve. His reasoning is that if God doesn’t exist, then believing in God will do you no harm. But if God does exist, then disbelieving in Him will do you harm. So if nothing else, belief in God is worthwhile as a kind of insurance policy.
...we are pretty sure oil production cannot be increased to infinity, nor will oil reserves last forever. What’s more, enough evidence exists to back up the possibility that oil could fall behind demand quite soon. It’s not just some lunatic fringe who are talking about peak oil. Many intelligent, experienced people - including geologists and some oil executives - are treating it as a serious possibility.
Yergin, on the other hand, is mainly a historian. We think he has just as much a chance of being wrong as we do, possibly more. The energy sources he expects to come online in the next few years are mainly exotic fuels such as liquefied natural gas. His numbers, in our opinion, do not add up.
A world where energy supply falls behind demand would be a world with negative growth and a lot of suffering. So clearly, the prudent thing to do is to act as if an energy crisis is a real possibility. We should be developing alternative energy sources that will safeguard our civilization even if oil runs out sooner than we hope. And if we’re wrong, so what? We’ll still be able to sleep at night, maybe even in an air-conditioned room.
(12 September 2005)
The Complete Investor website requires a login, so the complete article is not available for most people. The snippet here gives the flavor of the original. -BA
Stephen Leeb, The Complete Investor
...In some respects, what we are facing today regarding the oil situation resembles Pascal’s Wager.
Blaise Pascal was a theologian who wrote a series of notes called Pensees as part of an unfinished treatise on Christian apologetics. In these notes, he suggests that it is a better bet to believe in God than to disbelieve. His reasoning is that if God doesn’t exist, then believing in God will do you no harm. But if God does exist, then disbelieving in Him will do you harm. So if nothing else, belief in God is worthwhile as a kind of insurance policy.
...we are pretty sure oil production cannot be increased to infinity, nor will oil reserves last forever. What’s more, enough evidence exists to back up the possibility that oil could fall behind demand quite soon. It’s not just some lunatic fringe who are talking about peak oil. Many intelligent, experienced people - including geologists and some oil executives - are treating it as a serious possibility.
Yergin, on the other hand, is mainly a historian. We think he has just as much a chance of being wrong as we do, possibly more. The energy sources he expects to come online in the next few years are mainly exotic fuels such as liquefied natural gas. His numbers, in our opinion, do not add up.
A world where energy supply falls behind demand would be a world with negative growth and a lot of suffering. So clearly, the prudent thing to do is to act as if an energy crisis is a real possibility. We should be developing alternative energy sources that will safeguard our civilization even if oil runs out sooner than we hope. And if we’re wrong, so what? We’ll still be able to sleep at night, maybe even in an air-conditioned room.
(12 September 2005)
The Complete Investor website requires a login, so the complete article is not available for most people. The snippet here gives the flavor of the original. -BA
posted by Marcel at 7:33 AM
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