A little more on CERA
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A little more on CERA
Wed Sep 07 at 12:47 AM EST
Having listened to the CERA lecture that ProfG led us to earlier, I thought it might be interesting to check on some of their projects. For those who might be interested in doing their own "field by field" study on the supplies of oil that can be anticipated over the next five years I have copied the list from the CERA presentation discussed earlier and will give some sites where these can be looked up, for your own information. Interestingly I compared the list with that of the Megaprojects from ODAC and found more projects listed there than by CERA. I will put their comments under CS (for Chris Skrebowski who wrote their report).
CERA has the following projects listed for 2005.
Bonga is a Deepwater Project, Niger Delta this "long-delayed" offshore field is operated by Royal Dutch Shell and is anticipated to be operating in the 4th Quarter of this year and reach 225,000 bd by the middle of next year. see Chris Skrebowski has it listed as coming on line in 2004. See also here and here
Kizomba B is a Deepwater project, Angola, and is scheduled to install facilities in June 2005, and begin oil production in 2006. It is ahead of schedule. CS has it online in 2006. See here and here
Albacora Leste is offshore Brazil and has been delayed (CS had it coming on stream in 2004) and is now anticipated for 3rd Quarter of this year at 100,000 bd rising to full production of 180,000 bd. Information here, from Rigzone. There is also a note that it may produce a little less than anticipated.
Upon completion the vessel will head to the field where it will hook to 15 producers and 15 water injectors. Peak production is expected to be 164,000b/d reached in 2009.
4. White Rose, is offshore Canada and will start in the fourth quarter. (CS has it starting then)
See here and here. While the OGJ says:
Husky Energy Inc., Calgary, plans to start production in the fourth quarter from White Rose oil field in the Grand Banks region off Newfoundland and Labrador.
Husky, operator of the $2.35 billion White Rose project, anticipates peak production of 100,000 b/d of oil from the field, which it estimates has probable reserves of 200-250 million bbl (OGJ Online, Aug. 12, 2004).)
Thunder Horse is the Deepwater, GOMEX, set to produce 250,000 bd, which has been delayed 6 mo.
Non-OPEC supply growth in 2006 is forecast to slow from a six-month delay in start up of the Thunder Horse oilfield in the U.S. Gulf and the loss of some production in India due to the Bombay High oilfield accident, the report said.
See also, here and here. Note that CS had it on stream in 2005.
Dharkovin, is in Iran and there is not a lot of information quickly available on it. CS does not appear to have it and possible production ranges from 10,000 bd to 160,000 bd but its current fate is not completely clear.
7.Adar Yale, (or Adar Yael) in the Sudan being developed by the Chinese. It was initially operating at 5,000 bd, but the EIA now projects greater production
The blocks contain the Adar Yeil and Tale fields, anticipated to come online in 2005 with a combined capacity of 200,000 bbl/d. Capacity is expected to increase to 300,000 bbl/d by late 2006.
See this also.
UPDATE: Since it is a bit hard to find much information on this one (As Halfin points out CS doesn't have it) I am going to steal a site that Econbrowser gives, namely the left coaster almost at the bottom of the page.
Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company Limited (GNPOC), a joint venture of four companies, will produce 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) at the Adar/Yale onshore fields in Central Sudan, which will raise output at the North African country to 500,000 bpd. "Next year, there will be an additional output of 200,000 bpd. Now, GNPOC's output is 300,000 bpd," one source said. Sudan's oil minister had said last September he expected oil exports from Africa's largest country to reach 600,000 bpd by 2005.
8. Primorsk, This was a bit difficult to work out, since that is the name of a Baltic Port facility which is increasing capacity to 1.2 mbd but this does not give them the oil to do that. CS has two other sites possible Priobskoye which was Yukos (CS has it for 550,000 bd in 2004). It could also be Prirazlomnoye Also described here (CS has it for 150,000 in 2005)
9. Sakhalin 1 is an island off the East coast of Russia, just North of Japan. CS has this for 250,000 bd this year.
From OGJ
With 10 of 30 wells drilled at Sakhalin I, gas production is to start in fall 2005 and oil production in 2006 (OGJ Online, July 13, 2005). The plan is for 250,000 b/d of liquids output by 2010.
10. ACG Megastructure, which is in Azerbaijan started Feb 2005, and is anticipated to average 410,000 bd this year (CS has it down for 1 mbd starting this year, as does ExxonMobil).
Well that was the 2005 list - some slippage in a number of cases. CERA also gave us a list for 2006 and 2007, and with time I may discuss those also.
A little more on CERA
Wed Sep 07 at 12:47 AM EST
Having listened to the CERA lecture that ProfG led us to earlier, I thought it might be interesting to check on some of their projects. For those who might be interested in doing their own "field by field" study on the supplies of oil that can be anticipated over the next five years I have copied the list from the CERA presentation discussed earlier and will give some sites where these can be looked up, for your own information. Interestingly I compared the list with that of the Megaprojects from ODAC and found more projects listed there than by CERA. I will put their comments under CS (for Chris Skrebowski who wrote their report).
CERA has the following projects listed for 2005.
Bonga is a Deepwater Project, Niger Delta this "long-delayed" offshore field is operated by Royal Dutch Shell and is anticipated to be operating in the 4th Quarter of this year and reach 225,000 bd by the middle of next year. see Chris Skrebowski has it listed as coming on line in 2004. See also here and here
Kizomba B is a Deepwater project, Angola, and is scheduled to install facilities in June 2005, and begin oil production in 2006. It is ahead of schedule. CS has it online in 2006. See here and here
Albacora Leste is offshore Brazil and has been delayed (CS had it coming on stream in 2004) and is now anticipated for 3rd Quarter of this year at 100,000 bd rising to full production of 180,000 bd. Information here, from Rigzone. There is also a note that it may produce a little less than anticipated.
Upon completion the vessel will head to the field where it will hook to 15 producers and 15 water injectors. Peak production is expected to be 164,000b/d reached in 2009.
4. White Rose, is offshore Canada and will start in the fourth quarter. (CS has it starting then)
See here and here. While the OGJ says:
Husky Energy Inc., Calgary, plans to start production in the fourth quarter from White Rose oil field in the Grand Banks region off Newfoundland and Labrador.
Husky, operator of the $2.35 billion White Rose project, anticipates peak production of 100,000 b/d of oil from the field, which it estimates has probable reserves of 200-250 million bbl (OGJ Online, Aug. 12, 2004).)
Thunder Horse is the Deepwater, GOMEX, set to produce 250,000 bd, which has been delayed 6 mo.
Non-OPEC supply growth in 2006 is forecast to slow from a six-month delay in start up of the Thunder Horse oilfield in the U.S. Gulf and the loss of some production in India due to the Bombay High oilfield accident, the report said.
See also, here and here. Note that CS had it on stream in 2005.
Dharkovin, is in Iran and there is not a lot of information quickly available on it. CS does not appear to have it and possible production ranges from 10,000 bd to 160,000 bd but its current fate is not completely clear.
7.Adar Yale, (or Adar Yael) in the Sudan being developed by the Chinese. It was initially operating at 5,000 bd, but the EIA now projects greater production
The blocks contain the Adar Yeil and Tale fields, anticipated to come online in 2005 with a combined capacity of 200,000 bbl/d. Capacity is expected to increase to 300,000 bbl/d by late 2006.
See this also.
UPDATE: Since it is a bit hard to find much information on this one (As Halfin points out CS doesn't have it) I am going to steal a site that Econbrowser gives, namely the left coaster almost at the bottom of the page.
Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company Limited (GNPOC), a joint venture of four companies, will produce 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) at the Adar/Yale onshore fields in Central Sudan, which will raise output at the North African country to 500,000 bpd. "Next year, there will be an additional output of 200,000 bpd. Now, GNPOC's output is 300,000 bpd," one source said. Sudan's oil minister had said last September he expected oil exports from Africa's largest country to reach 600,000 bpd by 2005.
8. Primorsk, This was a bit difficult to work out, since that is the name of a Baltic Port facility which is increasing capacity to 1.2 mbd but this does not give them the oil to do that. CS has two other sites possible Priobskoye which was Yukos (CS has it for 550,000 bd in 2004). It could also be Prirazlomnoye Also described here (CS has it for 150,000 in 2005)
9. Sakhalin 1 is an island off the East coast of Russia, just North of Japan. CS has this for 250,000 bd this year.
From OGJ
With 10 of 30 wells drilled at Sakhalin I, gas production is to start in fall 2005 and oil production in 2006 (OGJ Online, July 13, 2005). The plan is for 250,000 b/d of liquids output by 2010.
10. ACG Megastructure, which is in Azerbaijan started Feb 2005, and is anticipated to average 410,000 bd this year (CS has it down for 1 mbd starting this year, as does ExxonMobil).
Well that was the 2005 list - some slippage in a number of cases. CERA also gave us a list for 2006 and 2007, and with time I may discuss those also.
posted by Marcel at 3:41 PM
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